As Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) walked into the St. George & St. Dimitrie Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on a crisp fall afternoon, he received a shot-glass-sized paper cup of țuică — a traditional Romanian plum brandy.
The governor's eyes widened when the strong, typically homemade fruit spirit hit the back of his throat — a welcome drink meant to whet the appetite and serve as an icebreaker.
The libation came with the toast "noroc," or good luck in Romanian, from Lia Roberts, president of the parish council and honorary consul for the Romanian Consulate.
Roberts, a former leader of the Nevada Republican Party, guided Lombardo through the room, festooned with Romanian flags and a golden balloon-letter "Romania" sign on the back wall.
Lombardo wore a dark suit jacket, dark blue jeans and a Nevada-shaped lapel pin. He greeted attendees with hugs as they shared a meal celebrating the church's namesake, Saint Dimitrie.
It wasn't the first time the governor had visited the small parish. As Clark County sheriff, he came frequently.
But just nine days before Election Day, Lombardo's visit wasn't just for community building. In brief remarks, he said it was a "critical time" for Nevada.
"Your vote matters in the state of Nevada, and unfortunately, when there isn't a president on the ballot, people tend to be a little apathetic and they don't show up," Lombardo said. "We gotta change that."
The message is the first-term Republican governor's final pitch to voters in one of the country's closest gubernatorial races. Despite a massive fundraising and advertising advantage, President Donald Trump's (R) unpopularity and stubbornly high prices have soured voters on Republicans and given fresh energy to Democrats — namely Lombardo's challenger Attorney General Aaron Ford (D).
Prediction market odds have surged in Ford's favor as early vote totals in the state have been nothing but good news for Democrats. A late seven-figure advertising boost from national Democrats has helped the two-term attorney general even the playing field after being pummeled by pro-Lombardo groups all summer.
Despite the warning signs — including GOP super PACs withdrawing spending from supposedly competitive Southern Nevada House races — the governor hasn't stopped. Downballot Republicans still eagerly tout his support, and his favorability ratings are still double digits higher than the president.
But will Lombardo be the last Republican standing when the music stops on Election Day? There's some precedent: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) won re-election in 2022 despite a hostile midterm environment, and former Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) won in the 2006 midterms despite a nationwide blue wave — though with a much different state electorate than 2026.
Lombardo's focus in the final week before the election has been local: visits to a Baptist church, an interview with a conservative radio station, the stop by the Romanian Orthodox church and speaking at a groundbreaking for Nevada's first stand-alone children's hospital.
Lombardo told The Nevada Independent while canvassing in Reno on Friday that he believes faith-based and other communities should hear from him directly.
"I found out early on when I was a sheriff, even way before I was sheriff as a police officer … we don't have that complete understanding of the community, especially when you're a young police officer," Lombardo said. "As you move forward in your career, you understand you're only successful as the trust you create with the community."
It's also gone under the radar; only the groundbreaking, a door-knocking event and one national figure's visit were advised to the media. Ford, his Democratic opponent, is holding multiple press conferences every week, engaging directly with social media personalities and campaigning with 2028 hopefuls including former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). The biggest name appearing for Lombardo in the home stretch is likely only known to wonks — former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
While Ford has not hesitated to nationalize the race and tie Lombardo and Trump at the hip, the incumbent's strategy is to come across as a moderate, run on his record, distance himself from Trump and not minimize the economic struggles of Nevadans.
His closing remarks at the Romanian Orthodox church summarize what that looks like in practice.
"We still have a significant amount of work to be done. I need another four years to finish it," he said.
The great irony of 2026 is that Ford is running almost the exact same playbook that Lombardo did when he successfully challenged former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in 2022.
Lombardo, a two-term Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak by linking the then-governor to President Joe Biden (D) and focusing campaign ads on inflation and rising costs.
The strategy is still salient four years later — despite record job numbers and a falling unemployment rate, Ford's biggest line of attack has been affordability and the cost of living. Emerson College polling shows a large plurality of Nevada voters (43 percent) view the economy as their top issue. Gas prices have hit near record highs, while high housing and rent costs have continued to fester.
Lombardo even made headlines for saying when it comes to affordability and inflation rates, "I can't control that" — a tacit admission that the governor has little direct control over the economy but gets the full brunt of voters' anger.
Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at UNLV, noted that Nevada's governor's race has tightened as the president's popularity has dropped.
"Trump himself is ensuring that to the best of his ability, when voters think of the Republican who's on the ticket, they think of Trump," she said.
In 2022, Sisolak had to contend not only with inflation but with frustration over his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and related downstream policies, including lengthy unemployment benefit delays. This year, UNR political science professor Jeremy Gelman said Lombardo doesn't have those same kinds of tenure-defining policies in play.
"I think the political environment for Republicans this cycle is more challenging than it was for Democrats in 2022, so it cuts both ways," he said. "The main difference is … the policies between Sisolak and Lombardo were directly traceable to Sisolak. Ford's trying to make that extra jump to Trump as president."
While door-knocking in Reno on Friday, Lombardo told The Nevada Independent that he believes Nevadans understand the distinction between the federal and the state government.
"I'm more concerned about what influence I could have within the boundaries of our state," he said, adding that states have to "build upon the programs that come down from up on high and build upon those, and then the ones that you don't agree with, you work around until you can get to where you need to be."
Will voters buy it?
The answer will come from voters similar to Monique Grant, a 47-year-old who told The Indy Saturday at the annual Nevada Day parade in Carson City that she identifies as nonpartisan, hasn't decided who she's going to vote for yet and plans to review the ballot over the weekend. But she's frustrated by what she described as Trump's "obvious corruption."
Another nonpartisan voter at the parade was Erik Charm, a 59-year-old who described himself as right of center politically and said Trump has "done some good things" and "some incredibly stupid things."
Charm said Trump isn't weighing into his voting decisions, and he'll vote for Lombardo on Election Day because he likes his experience as sheriff.
Lombardo said the campaign is hearing a lot about affordability and is focusing on what he has done as governor and what he can do in a second term to move the state forward. He added that many politicians worry about the next election or next title, and he's focused on shaping the state's future.
So is he planning any future runs?
"Not at this point," Lombardo said. "What I'm interested in right now is getting across the finish line successfully here in four or five days."
Lombardo swapped his dark blue jeans for dark gray slacks and a matching blazer before the groundbreaking for Nevada's first children's hospital.
It was a literal red-carpet affair featuring a host of politically powerful lobbyists and lawmakers. It was good policy — Las Vegas is the largest metropolitan area without a standalone children's hospital — and good politics: Lombardo's campaign has taken credit for the hospital in TV ads.
The evening couldn't have been more different from the church where Lombardo broke bread with parishioners, but his typical gruff way of speaking stayed the same.
The audience responded in kind to Lombardo's opening greeting of "Good evening," prompting the governor to joke that he had some authority in the space. Later, when fireworks started, he looked around and asked his staff if there was a shooting — decades of experience as a cop taking over.
During the unveiling, his wife, Donna, teared up at the stories of children with cancer who were talking about the need for the hospital, driving home the personal meaning. Their grandson, Teddy, once had a medical emergency that required immediate surgery but none of the hospitals in the state had the ability to treat it.
It's how voters respond to these feel-good elements of Lombardo's record that will determine if the Republican wins another term. His campaign ads have relentlessly touted his accomplishments, including stats as having the highest job growth in the country, setting up $900 million in downpayment assistance and other changes aimed at addressing the housing crisis. They've also featured support from Democrats, including Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson (D), while the third-party groups backing him have spent millions attacking Ford for his out-of-state travel and votes for clemency for convicted murderers.
With $76 million spent on the race per ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the results have been mixed.
"They've kind of bloodied each other up a little bit," Gill from UNLV said, adding that Nevada's lack of a Senate or presidential election has insulated the governor to a certain degree.
Asked about the campaign ads, Nevada Day parade attendees overall emphasized that they preferred positive ads about what candidates stand for, rather than negative ones.
"Tell me why you're a good candidate, OK," Charm said. "I would rather hear your positives, if there are any, rather than a misrepresented list of other candidates' negatives."
"There's a lot more attack ads than policy ads," said Harper Lopiccolo, 22, who voted for Ford. "I learn more about a candidate and the positive things that they're bringing to the table than just about the negative history that they might have, and so that's something I've noticed a lot of, and I'd obviously like that to change."
Unlike candidates in other states, Gill noted that Lombardo has walked a line between a pro-Trump primary electorate and the median Nevada voter who disapproves of the president.
"Political gravity has caught up with the Trump administration and has kind of splattered onto Republicans more generally," she said. "But I think he is doing better now than might be expected, just because of how poorly Republicans are doing across the board."
Gill pointed out that Lombardo isn't particularly comfortable with public speaking, and the few times the governor has been in front of large crowds, he's made gaffes. At an August rally with the president, Lombardo went off-script to defend the president caring for his "billionaire friends" — a clip that has even been run as an ad by Democrats.
It's led to his campaign focusing on outreach such as roundtables and paid media, where he can largely control the messaging.
He can break through in smaller settings.
At the Romanian Orthodox church in Las Vegas, Agripina Serban, 57, was so moved by the governor's message that she approached Lombardo campaign staffers afterward, offering to volunteer for the campaign in the final few weeks.
She told The Nevada Independent the governor's message gave her "goosebumps," stemming, she said, from a presence that felt grounded and steeped in genuine care for the community. She appreciated his honesty that macro-level changes to areas such as the economy are not accomplished overnight.
"If they're on the path of doing certain things, it does take time. … Most people say I voted today, it has to be changed tomorrow. It can't be," she said.
Lombardo acknowledged that it can be hard for messages to break through.
"Sometimes people don't hear it, and that's why you're out knocking on doors, and that's why you're meeting people from where their lives are," he said.
On Wednesday, Lombardo approached a Spanish colonial home in Summerlin with two red, white and blue wreaths hanging on the door. It was the 50,000th door knocked by his campaign.
Across the street, a nearly identical home sported a prominent white-and-blue Ford for Governor sign.
As he spoke to two supporters at the door who had already voted, Lombardo implored them to tell their friends to vote, as well. "I already am," one of the supporters said.
She asked Lombardo what he thought was necessary to bring people with different political views together, noting that she talks to her neighbor, who is not a Republican, but doesn't feel that's common.
"There's a little extreme in both left and right," Lombardo said, adding later that Democrats have also supported him.
"I think it's a matter of communicating, providing some leadership," he said about the best way to navigate the conundrum. "A lot of it's because of miscommunication. Whether it's biased broadcasting or not, that's why I said the education piece is so important."
To carry the election, Lombardo will need to win over a sizable share of nonpartisan voters — the state's largest voting bloc. Whether or not he can is largely based on the national environment.
"Lombardo and Ford want to believe that they have a significant effect on the mix of this electorate, and the reality is they probably don't," Gelman said. "They might have an effect on the margins, and they might have an effect on whether they run well or less well with certain segments of the electorate, but the broad nature of it, whether it's going to be more Democratic or more Republican, that cake is baked."
Gelman said Lombardo is leaning into a strategy referred to as "home style"— a down-to-earth presentation to voters that worked for Democrats in adverse election years, such as Cortez Masto in 2022 and the late Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) in 2010.
Meanwhile, Lombardo is still courting voters.
He told The Nevada Independent at Wednesday's door-knocking event that he's not nervous about the voting returns so far, but that it's important to "keep pushing."
"Traditionally, in the state of Nevada, those things fluctuate significantly depending on the cycle or where you're at in the cycle and the actual voting day," he said.
"People need contact," the governor continued. "They don't want you just showing up four years later."
Reporter Kate Reynolds contributed to this story.
