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From Bucks County to the Lehigh Valley, northeastern Pennsylvania and the Harrisburg suburbs, four congressional races are testing whether Republican incumbents nationwide can survive strong headwinds as they fight to keep their seats.
The Republicans in those seats are facing robust challenges from well-financed Democrats who are benefitting from one of the biggest blue waves in years.
The four Pennsylvania seats Democrats believe they can flip are more than any other state. As Election Day inches closer, analysts have shifted their predictions further toward Democratic victories.
Incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick is facing off against Montgomery County Commissioner Bob Harvie in a district where Democrats have a 1-point registration advantage.
Fitzpatrick has served in the U.S. House for five terms and won reelection in 2024 by nearly 13 percentage points. Over his congressional career, he has crafted an image as an independent, moderate Republican. He also boasts significant support from labor with dozens of union endorsements.
Democratic messaging has targeted that reputation, with the vast majority of ads mentioning Trump and arguing the congressman is “lockstep” with the president.
That strategy may be working.
“You read this stuff and you say, ‘Oh, he’s moderate and he does this,’ but then you look at how he votes and whenever the Republicans need him, he votes with them,” said Bucks County resident Jean Barrell, a Democrat.
Recently, Cook Political Report shifted their rating in the 1st Congressional District race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from “leans Republican” to “toss up,” suggesting a narrowing of the gap. And this week, the first public poll in the race shows a dead heat between the two candidates.
Republicans have also gone on the offensive, releasing a video accusing Harvie of being the subject of a 2022 FBI corruption investigation into Falls Township where he was previously a town supervisor. Harvie has responded that he was merely a witness and sued the group that released the ad for defamation.
While the accusers have not offered evidence, the accusation has made a mark.
“I think it had to do with some spending issues,” said Tom Esposito, a Bucks County Republican. “So the people need to know that, right? And if it wasn’t a big deal, Harvie shouldn’t try to hide it.”
Fitzpatrick has maintained a substantial fundraising advantage. Federal Election Commission data show about $8 million in receipts during the 2025–2026 cycle through Oct. 14, compared with Harvie’s more than $3 million. Fitzpatrick had over $700,000 in cash remaining, compared with Harvie’s more than $400,000. Outside groups have also spent millions more in the race.
The only public poll in the race puts Harvie at 48% and Fitzpatrick at 46%. The 2-point gap was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
